Russian authorities are planning toย “expandย mobilization” in autumn this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, citing intelligence services. According to Zelenskyy, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing to recruit additional Russian soldiers to fight in the war against Ukraine.
“He is concealing his intention behind different words and signals, but he is making preparations,” Zelenskyy said. “It is important that we, together with our partners, exert sufficient pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending this aggression โ the idea of peace, rather than further Russian mobilization โ prevails,” he added. The Ukrainian president also said Russia’s army was losing more fighters at the front than it can recruit, even though Putin wants to intensify the attacks and expand the war.
Putin issued a decree in autumn 2022 launching a “partial mobilization,” which remains in effect to this day, as confirmed by the presidential administration in 2023. The document, it said, “regulates additional measures necessary to ensure that the armed forces fulfill their objectives.”
What points to a possible new mobilization drive?
Independent Russian exile media outlet Verstka and Latvia-based Russian-language news portal Vaschnyje Istorii published an investigative report in late June stating that Russia’s leadership was secretly “discussing mobilization” given the difficulties in recruiting new conscripts. One source quoted by Verstka said figures by Moscow‘s mayoral office show the city sent 1,708 people to the front in April of this year and 1,378 in May โ around 1,000 fewer people than during the same period last year. This low recruitment rate reportedly continued in June as well.
Vaschnyje Istorii reported that the recruitment rate for soldiers serving on fixed-term contracts more than halved in the last quarter of 2025 compared with the same period the previous year. The outlet said the recruitment rate had dropped even further in early 2026. The news outlet also cited sources from different Russian regions revealing that the number of people applying for army contracts was falling.
Military personnel interviewed by Verstka said that contract soldiers beingย sent to fight this year were “unfit for combat,” with many new arrivals fleeing the front lines. One conscript told the news outlet that “units are staffed at 30 to 40%, at best.”
The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in late July that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a fresh mobilization drive. ISW analysts wrote that such a move would be “a personal decision for Putinย that is contingent on his personal perception of the battlefield situation and his perception of the stability and integrity of the Kremlin.” They added that it “remains unclear whether or how Putin will decide to implement mobilization.”
A few days ago, Verstka reported that demand for Armenian rental apartments had shot up, driven by Russian interest โ just as it had in 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The outlet said rents in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, have risen by about 30% in recent months. According to the report, Russians are planning to leave the country ahead of the State Duma election, scheduled to be held from September 18 to 20.
One landlord told the outlet that in recent years most of his clients had been Russians who had already been living in Armenia for quite some time. Now, however, 80% of inquiries were from Russians who had recently moved to Armenia or were planning to relocate there.
What has Russia said?
Speaking at a press conference in late July, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov chose not to comment on Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s remarks regarding a possible new mobilization drive, saying “it is not Zelenskyy’s job to talk about our plans.”
Andrei Klishas, a member of the Russian Federation Council, told Russian-language media outlet RTVI in early summer 2026 that a new mobilization was not currently being discussed in the country as it was unnecessary.
Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, dismissed rumors about a possible new mobilization, calling them “pre-election propaganda.” The former Russian president also claimed that in the first half of 2026, some 200,000 people had enlisted in the Russian army.
“Of course, you can’t blindly trust information provided by the Russian authorities,” military expert Yan Matveyev told DW. “Information is adjusted to align with their objectives,” he added, with regard to Medvedev’s statements on the number of new Russian contract soldiers. That said, figures provided by Russian officials are not too far off when compared with analyses by independent researchers, Matveyev said. “Instead of Medvedev’s nearly 200,000 new soldiers, that number would probably be closer to 170,000 or 180,000 over six months.”
In his view, the current recruitment rate is not sufficient for Russia to secure a military victory over Ukraine. A new mobilization drive would not change that, Matveyev added. “Even if they doubled the size of their army, Russia would not be able to defeat Ukraine, but as can be seen from the statements made by Putin and his officials, that is precisely their goal.”
Matveyev believes that, given the losses on the front lines, the strength of Russia’s army will dwindle unless a fresh mobilization is launched. This decline, he believes, will continue slowly at first but then accelerate. “Losses are growing and will continue to rise given current trends.”
This article was translated from German