Zambia’s opposition is entering the 2026Ā general election without Edgar Lungu, the politician who for years united its biggest parties and inspired much of its support. Lungu, the country’s former president, died in South Africa on June 5, 2025.
Opposition parties have since been competing to inherit his political legacy while trying to convince voters they remain a credible alternative to incumbent Hakainde Hichilema’s ruling United Party for National Development (UPND).
Lungu had led the now dismantled Patriotic Front (PF) party, a faction of which becameĀ part of Zambia’s overallĀ opposition Tonse AllianceĀ in 2024. The former president had also intitially been fronted as the coalition’s 2026 presidential candidate.
‘The Edgar Lungu factor is still at play’
Political analyst Neo Simutanyi says Lungu’s absence exposesĀ an unresolved leadership question within the opposition coalition.
“He had a Plan B. He intended to back someone who would carry forward his political project, but he never had the opportunity to announce that person before he died,” Simutanyi told DW.
Competing claims emerged over who should lead the Tonse Alliance emerged after Lungu’s death. The coalition, now rebranded as the Tonse Pamodzi Alliance, has endorsed Brian Mundubile as its 2026 presidential candidate. HeĀ and Lungu were PF allies, while his running mate, Makebi Zulu, was Lungu’s lawyer. Mundubile is widely seen as Hichilema’s top challenger.
Simutanyi believes Lungu’s influence nevertheless remains significant. “It is effectively a PF campaign without the PF label,” he said, addingĀ that several candidates are appealing to the same support base by presenting themselves as heirs to Lungu’s legacy.
“The Edgar Lungu factor is still at play because candidates are campaigning on his legacy and many of the areas where he enjoyed strong support remain politically competitive.”
A battle for voters
Lungu’s influence remains particularly visible on the Copperbelt, Zambia’s mining heartlandĀ and one of the country’s most competitive electoral battlegrounds.
“Edgar Lungu’s absence has left a big vacuum in the opposition, especially in the Patriotic Front. He was the one holding the party together,” said Agness Tembo, a young leader from the Copperbelt.
She warned that a fragmented opposition could weaken Zambia’s competitive multiparty democracy. But not all voters believe personalities will decide the election.
Richard Mwamba, another Copperbelt resident, said many people are more concerned about their daily lives than political succession. “This election will be less about personalities and more about delivery ā€” jobs, the cost of living, mining, electricity, roads and the prices of goods and services,” he said.
For many PF supporters, however, Lungu’s absence remains deeply felt. “Lungu united people from different political backgrounds. It will be difficult to find someone with the same influence,” said supporter Mabvuto Phiri.
Tonse Pamodzi Alliance Secretary-General Celestine Mukandila rejects suggestions that the coalition has lost momentum. “President Lungu had once indicated that he had a Plan B. Today I can confirm that the Plan B is in place,” Mukandila told DW. The alliance remains united behind Mundubile, he added.
“We are responding to president Lungu’s call for unity of purposeĀ and now haveĀ an opportunity to elect Brian Mundubile as president.”
A regional test
Analysts say Zambia’s opposition now faces a challenge seen elsewhere in Southern Africa, where parties have struggled after losing dominant leaders.
In Zimbabwe, opposition politics became increasingly fragmented following the death of Morgan Tsvangirai in 2018, while leadership transitions in other countries have also tested theĀ ability of parties to remain united and electorally competitive.
Zambia has held regular multiparty elections since 1991 and is widely regarded as one of the region’sĀ more stable democracies. The election thisĀ year, analysts say, will show whether opposition parties can broaden their appeal beyond one influential political figure.
Lungu came to power in a special presidential election uponĀ the death of then President Michael Sata in 2015. The following year, heĀ was reelected to a five-year term. After losing power to Hichilema in a 2021 vote, LunguĀ returned to frontline politics and became the opposition’s most influential leader.
Simutanyi says Lungu’s political influence did not end with his death. His name may no longer appear on the ballot, but the contest over his legacy could still shape how many Zambians vote on August 13.
Edited by: Benita van Eyssen