For years,Mali has struggled to contain a growing jihadist insurgency, particularly in the country’s northern region. Following the withdrawal of French troops and despite the authorities’ close cooperation with Russia, theal-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) continues to expand its influence. Now, a new actor could enter the conflict: the United States (US).
Founded in 2017, JNIM unites several Islamist groups under the banner of al-Qaeda. Over the past years, the organization has developed into the most powerful jihadist force in the Sahel. Its objective is the establishment of an Islamist order and the displacement of state structures as well as Western influence.
“We are no longer talking about a group that only carries out isolated attacks,” explains Tobias RĆ¼ttershof, head of the Sahel Program of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), which is affiliated with Germany’s CDU party and has an office in Mali, in an interview with DW. “In many regions, JNIM effectively controls the security situation, collects taxes, mediates local conflictsĀ and in some areas is more present than the Malian state.”Ā
Why the US is considering attacking JNIM
According to the US National Counterterrorism Center, JNIM was responsible for more than 1,200 deaths in 2025, making it the second-deadliest terrorist organization in the world. Particularly concerning is the group’s geographic expansion: JNIM is now active not only in Burkina Faso and Niger, but increasingly in the coastal states of West Africa.Ā
The USĀ government is divided over the question of direct military strikes. Supporters such as Sebastian Gorka, senior director for counterterrorism at the National Security Council, argue that JNIM is one of the world’s most dangerous jihadist organizations and that its advance must be halted.
Russia’s security strategy in Mali has so far failed to deliver results, according to RĆ¼ttershof.Ā
“After the withdrawal of French forces, the UN mission MINUSMA, and European training missions, Mali’s military government argued thatĀ Russia could stabilize the security situation more effectively,” Gorka told DW. “That expectation has not been fulfilled so far. On the contrary, JNIM appears stronger today than it was several years ago.”
Following military coups in 2020 and 2021, Bamako increasingly distanced itself from Western partners and expanded cooperation with Russia.
Mali’s lukewarm reaction to US potential airstrikes against jihadists
The Malian government has responded cautiously to reports of possible USĀ airstrikes.
“We have received absolutely no confirmation from the United States,” Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop said. “But I can assure you that Mali is not simply sitting and waiting for others to come and solve our problem.”
Mali, he said, is relying on its own security forces and on preserving its sovereignty.
Public opinion is also divided. One resident of Bamako told DW: “Anything that ultimately brings us peace, throughout the entire territory of the country, is welcome.”
Another resident pointed to the close cooperation with Russia: “Russian forces are already present on our soil, and now the Americans also want to come. Our authorities know better than anyone else what is good for the population and what harms us. I think the option of an American military intervention in Mali is not a bad idea.”
Risks of escalation, more radicalization
Abdoulmoumouni Abbas, an expert on preventing radicalization in the Sahel, warns against overestimating the effectiveness of US military strikes. Experiences from US-supported counterterrorism operations in Nigeria provide important lessons.Ā
“The results of such operations, including those in Nigeria, raise many questions. The initial strikes actually failed to achieve their objective in northern Nigeria, in the states of Sokoto and Kebbi,” Abbas told DW.
While targeted attacks could weaken JNIM’s leadership structures, the underlying causes of the conflict, such as poverty, weak institutions, and ethnic tensions, would remain unresolved. Moreover, retaliation against Western interests in the region could follow.
“It becomes more problematic when military actions cause civilian casualties. Every civilian-related mistake can be exploited by JNIM for propaganda purposes and used to recruit new members”,Ā RĆ¼ttershof told DW.
In 2025, for example, the group carried out a months-long blockade of major fuel shipments to Bamako and in 2026 participated in coordinated attacks on military installations across several regions of Mali.Ā
Mali’s geopolitical importance for the US
A US intervention would have not only security implications but also geopolitical consequences. The Sahel has become an arena of international competition. Russia has significantly expanded its influence in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in recent years.
“If Washington were actually to take military action, this would not only be about counterterrorism,” saidĀ RĆ¼ttershof. “It would also be a signal that the United States wants to remain capable of acting as a security actor.”
For Mali’s leaders, this would raise the question of how to navigate between the interests of external powers without losing their own political autonomy.
Foreign Minister Diop emphasized: “What we expect from a partner is that they come to Mali and ask Mali what Mali actually needs.”
The conflict in Mali cannot be permanently resolved through military means alone, RĆ¼ttershof warned. In some regions, people experience the state onlyĀ throughĀ corrupt security forces, while schools, healthcareĀ and functioning courts are absent.
“JNIM exploits existing dissatisfaction. That does not necessarily mean that the population shares its ideology, but many people pragmatically choose whichever actors can provide some form of order.”
For that reason, counterterrorism efforts must also include state-building, good governance, and economic development.
Saleh Mwanamilongo and Mahamadou Kane contributed to this article.
Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu