“Iranian Patriots, KEEP ā€¨PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!… HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” Trump posted on Tuesday, 13, 2026, on his Truth Social platform.
However, after a week of ongoing demonstrations,Ā help is yet to be seen. In fact, the US president has backtracked from his capital-letters pledge. He saidĀ he had been informed that the killings were subsiding and he did not believe mass executions were currently planned.
‘Alarming violence’
However, other UN member states apparently do not share this assessment. At their request, the UN Human Rights Council will hold a special session on Friday to discuss the “alarming violence” in Iran. Rights group Human Rights Watch has also called for a special session.
The US-based Iranian human rights organization Human Rights Activists (HRA) posted on X that there have been 4,029 documented deaths, including over 150 security forces. More than 9,000 deaths are still being investigated. Estimates suggest that the death toll could be significantly higher.
In addition to his official justification, however, TrumpĀ may also have changed his mind due to pressure from some Arab states. According to press reports, representatives from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and EgyptĀ held intensive diplomatic talks with the US last week in an attempt to prevent an imminent US attack on Iran. According to a reportĀ by the AP news agency, these states also urged the regime in Tehran to exercise restraint.
Mounting concerns in the Gulf states
According to the political scientist Pauline Raabe from the Middle East Minds think tank in Berlin, there areĀ a number of reasons behind the Gulf states’ objections to a US strike against the regime in Tehran: OnĀ one hand, the Gulf states have a strong interest in IranĀ remaining weak, as this makes it less dangerous, she said. On the other hand, “they also fear that violence could spiral out of control as the result of an attack and that they themselves could become targets of Iranian attacks,” Raabe told DW.
This view was echoed by Eckart Woertz, director of the German Institute of International and Security Affairs (GIGA) in Hamburg. He said he believes it is unlikely that the regime in Tehran will fall at present, “but if it did, it is unlikely to happen without violence,” he told DW, adding that “this violence could be directed against the Gulf states and could also prompt significant refugee movements.”
In the past years, the Gulf states and Iran have been fostering closer ties. An attack by the US could undo this process, Pauline Raabe notes. She also points out that the US bases in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and BahrainĀ could be among the first targets of possible Iranian airstrikes. “This worries the Gulf states as they would have war in their own backyard,” she told DW.
Economic fallout
A violent confrontation between Iran and the Gulf states could also prompt serious economic consequences. “If Iran decides to block trade routes, for example, this would have a significant impact on the economies of the Gulf states,” Raabe said.
Iran could block passage in the Persian Gulf. “We have already seen what this means to international shipping when the Houthi militia, a proxy group of Iran,fired on vesses in the Red Sea,” she explained, referring to the attacks on shipping in what the Houthis claimed was in support of Hamas in Gaza. Such a development in the Persian Gulf would, of course, have enormous economic consequences “first for the Arab states, but then, of course, for the global economy as a whole,” Raabe said.
Eckart Woertz also notes that the Gulf states are keen to avoid any disruptions as they are currently focused on their economic transformation processes. “Saudi Arabia wants to repositionĀ itself economically with its ‘Vision 2030’ and any unrest would be a major hindrance,” he told DW. This also applies to more traditional industries, such as the extraction of natural resources, especially oil. “Any uncertainty is detrimental to these industries, as they depend on trust and functioning supply chains. Both are prerequisites for the economy in the Gulf,” Woertz said.Ā
Authoritarian stability
In turn, the Gulf states have a vested interest in maintaining stability in the region even throughĀ authoritarian structuresĀ authoritarian structures, Woertz continues. “The political elite of the Gulf states apparently prefers to rely on the familiar old regime rather than getting involved with a new, potentially unknown faction,” he said, adding that they still have strong reservations about the Iranian regime in the Gulf states.
“At the same time, however, both sides have deepened their diplomatic contacts again in recent years after a period of tension. They don’t want to jeopardize that,” he notes.
Moreover, the Arab political elites want to avoid a repeat of the protests that took place in their countries in 2011, Pauline Raabe says. “In order to maintain their own stability, the Gulf states are more likely to rely on other instruments than the regime in Tehran,” she said, noting that “they would rather offer specific concessions to the population.”
This article was originally published in German.