Opinion | What would a US trade war ‘win’ really look like for Americans?

The rapidly arrived at pause in the US trade war with China debunked the myth that international trade benefits mainly exporters. Any voluntary trade has to be advantageous for both buyer and seller.

While it is doubtful US President Donald Trump can clinch his long-coveted Nobel Peace Prize, if he allows a full-scale trade war with China to drag on until the end of the year, he should have a fair shot at the Nobel Prize in economics for launching a bold experiment in global commerce and proving empirically (by contradiction) key principles in international trade theory.

While we may not have the benefit of witnessing empty store shelves across America this Christmas, it would be revealing to conduct a thought experiment on what a definitive US trade war “win” would look like.

Imagine an effective embargo, say through a 150 per cent tariff on all imports to the United States. And that all nations accept this magnanimously, allowing US goods tariff-free entry into their countries even as the US closes its market. In such a world, the US should enjoy a trade surplus with every partner. What would such a “prosperous” US look like?

For a start, without affordable fast fashion from the likes of Shein and Temu, many American women might return to sewing their own dresses. Despite the strong presence of Japanese and European sewing machine brands, Singer remains a leader in the US market. However, like its peers, Singer’s production has largely shifted to Asia. Re-establishing US manufacturing on a large scale may prove challenging without components from Asia.

A few generations ago American stay-at-home mothers may have had the interest, skill and time for sewing but there have been dramatic social changes since then. In 1950, only about a third of American women worked. Now, 58 per cent do – over 77 per cent for prime-age women (25-54 years old) – representing 47 per cent of the US workforce. Working women may not have the time and energy to sew. Would a doctor or tech professional want to spend time on making clothes?

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