Israel’s Somaliland recognition: Strategic ripples in Africa

Israel’s decision on December 26, 2025 to recognize Somaliland as an independent state sent shockwaves across the Horn of Africa and beyond. Diplomatic pushback from Somalia and concern within the African Union (AU) followed over regional stability and territorial integrity.

Somaliland, a self-governing region in northern Somalia, declared independence in 1991 following the collapse of Somali ruler Siad Barre’s military regime. Tens of thousands of people were killed in the late 1980s as Barre’s forces pursued rebel groups in the territory. Many Somalilanders argue the union with Somalia was unlawful and had failed, fuelling demands for self-rule and a separate, stable state.

Despite maintaining its own government, currency and security forces, Somaliland has never been internationally recognized.

“While Mogadishu has allowed some form of autonomy, it has not granted the territory to secede from the rest of the country,” security and geopolitical analyst Fidel Amakye Owusu told DW.

Owusu described Israel’s move as a “calculated geopolitical decision.” He says Israel sees a foothold in the Horn of Africa as beneficial for long-term security interests in a region close to key maritime routes and ongoing security threats. 

Israel’s announcement followed a controversial January 2024 Memorandum of Understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which proposed Ethiopian access to the Red Sea through a port and naval base in exchange for potential recognition. The deal was later renegotiated after sparking strong opposition from Somalia.

“The latest attempt by Israel to recognize Somaliland makes it a complicated matter,” Owusu said. “Not only does it border on vertical relations between Somaliland, Somalia and Israel, but it also borders on regional politics or geopolitics that involve Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia.”

Regional responses muted but cautious

So far, many of Somaliland’s neighbours have reacted cautiously or remained silent. Owusu noted that Ethiopia, which has long enjoyed close ties with Israel, is unlikely to openly condemn the move.

“For Ethiopia, it will always be that kind of strategic ambiguity — not condemning and not approving,” he said.

Kenya and the broader African Union, however, see the decision as inconsistent with Africa’s long-standing opposition to the recognition of breakaway territories.

“Africa does not want a territory that it does not recognize to be recognized by another,” Owusu added.

He also pointed to Egypt’s alignment with Somalia, saying Cairo would resist Israeli actions that affect what he described as a “brother country.”

Protests and political fallout

DW correspondent in Mogadishu, Mohammed Kahiye, reported protests across Somalia following Israel’s announcement. Demonstrations took place in Mogadishu and other regions, including areas claimed by Somaliland but not under its control. Business leaders, religious figures, students and politicians united in rejecting the move.

In contrast, people in Somaliland took to the streets in celebration, welcoming the recognition as a breakthrough after decades of diplomatic isolation.

“The federal government of Somalia, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has been very clear from the start, both verbal and action combined, that they do not accept the recognition of Somaliland as an independent state, viewing it as an interference in Somalia’s domestic affairs,” Kahiye said.

Somalia and its allies see the move as a national security threat, while the African Union and several East African countries have signalled opposition. Mogadishu continues to pursue diplomatic avenues to counter Israel’s decision.

Broader African implications

Owusu warned that the recognition could embolden secessionist movements across Africa, including in Western Sahara, Senegal, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan.

“If this is allowed, the African Union, that for decades has struggled for African unity, will feel threatened by the proliferation of states,” he said.

He urged African leaders to prioritize diplomacy. “We should rather look at diplomatic solutions.”

Kahiye added that many Somalis are calling for dialogue, and they fear unilateral decisions risk further destabilizing an already fragile region.

This article was adapted from the AfricaLink podcast.

You can find the episode and many others here.

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu