The Czech Republic “must remain committed to increasing defense spending,” Matthew Whitaker, the US envoy to NATO, demanded in Prague last week. “We โ expect our allies to step up,” he said.
The call is nothing new. As warnings about the threat emanating from Russia increase, and Washington demands European allies take greater responsibility for security, NATO has raised its target for defense spending from 2% to 3.5% of GDP, and pressure on those laggingย is rising.ย
Czechia, alongside Slovenia and Albania, has yet to meet the old target. But Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis, whose government cut the defense budget for 2026 to around 1.7% of GDP when it took office late last year, pushed back against the latest barb from Washington.ย
While reiterating that NATO membership is crucial for Czechia, the premier bluntly stated that the government cannot afford to accelerate spending. He has pledged to hit the 2% target in 2027 but plans no further increases.
That leaves the populist billionaire hoping that a personal rapport with US President Donald Trump will protect the country amid the burgeoning row.
Warnings of a growing threat
Whether Trump will protect Czechia from the threat of Russian hybrid warfare targeting Central European NATO allies is another question.
A growing wave of stray drones and Russian intelligence operations โ suspected bombings, sabotage and cyber warfare โ haveย spread alarm in the neighborhood.
Germany and Poland โ key Czech partners โ have reported high-profile incidents and linked them to attempts to intimidate Ukrainian allies.
Czechia should understand the threat better than most, having been among the first to experience such an attack.ย
Czechia’s Security Information Service (BIS) reported in 2021 that the bombing of a depot storing weapons linked to Ukraine seven years previously had been carried out by Russia’s domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service (FSB).ย
Babis, then in his first stint as PM, responded by expelling around 100 Russian diplomats and embassy staff, freezing relations with Moscow.
The BIS remains in step with other intelligence agencies across the region in warning that the threat from Russia is growing.ย
However, like its predecessors, the Babis government has failed to keep pace in terms of the national defense budget, even as neighbors have leapt into action.
Prague spent just 1.86% of GDP on defense last year; Poland and the Baltic States have already met the new NATO target and will hit 5% next year.
Prague’s priorities
Babis has made it clear this approach will not change. However, his claim that Czechia can’t afford to boost defense spending is at odds with the 2027 budget his government approved on September 22.
The fiscal plan will expand expenditure generously and targets Czechia’s second-highest deficit ever at 386 billion Czech crowns (โฌ15.8 billion or $18 billion).ย
While finally catching up to the old NATO target will account for some of that spending, most of the increased outlay will reflect the coalition government’s domestic political priorities.
The plan clearly reflects the election campaign promises of Babis’s ANO party and its junior partners, the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD) and radical-right Motorists for Themselves party. They all say defense can’t be allowed to disrupt the urgent need to spend on pensions, education, healthcare and infrastructure.
“The claim that the country cannot spend more on defense is primarily rooted in domestic politics,” Ales Michal, a political scientist at Prague’s Charles University, told DW. “The major priority is investment in the social system.”
That will be welcomed by supporters of the governing parties, who skew older and less well off, and resent the support being given to 300,000 or so Ukrainian refugees.
“None of the governing parties promised voters higher defense spending,” in campaigning for last year’s election, Michal notes.
Critics, however, say that’s because the government is downplaying the threat from Russia. The government’s spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.
‘We don’t want World War III’
The reticence to raise defense spending also reflects political narratives around the war in Ukraine.
Two days after Whitaker’s rebuke, Babis appeared in a video dressed in a T-shirt emblazoned with the words “No War” in blue and yellow letters. While he noted the threat from Russia, he called for greater efforts to find peace.
“We don’t want World War III, do we?” he pronounced, repeating his claim that Europe should work harder to end the conflict.ย
It was a performance echoing the stance of Europe’s radical right-wing, and the sort that has seen the Czech PM labelled “pro-Russian” in some international media.ย
The truth is more mundane. Babis is a pragmatist. The ANO electorate is populist and anti-Ukrainian, but also strongly pro-Western. Surveys show that the plan to keep defense spending at 2% of GDP precisely matches its views.ย
Yet Babis’s divisive personality leaves the party dependent on extremist partners for enough support to govern, and so he must also try to speak the anti-system, pro-Russian language of the SPD, which, despite controlling the defense ministry, was pushing to cut spending further in the 2027 budget.
“A critical stance towards Ukraine also shapes the government’s position on spending,” said Michal. The pro-peace stance downplaying Russia’s aggression moves ANO “closer to the European radical right,” he notes, but Babis is “guided by opinion polls,” and must try to find a “balance between two polarizing positions.”
Strategic understanding
The opposition sees this dichotomy as the government’s Achilles’ heel.ย
Martin Kupka, leader of the center-right Civicย Democrats (ODS), welcomed Babis’s reiterated NATO commitment before asking the PM: “When will you get rid of the Kremlin fifth column, which you took into the government and even entrusted with the Ministry of Defense?”
However, although the ODS-led government that held office between 2021 and 2025 offered fervent support to Ukraine, like all its predecessors, it also failed to meet the NATO spending target.
“Our partners may be unhappy about the approach to spending, but it’s the reality of the political situation in our country,” Andor Sandor, a defense analyst and former commander of Czechia’s Military Intelligence Service, told DW.ย
However, he added that while weak defense spending growth “is not optimal,” the biggest issue is a lack of strategic understanding regarding the military’s size and role.
Edited by: Aingeal Flanagan