How will it impact Middle East?

After new statements by US President Donald Trump on Thursday morning, it is still unclear whether a controversial new dealwith Saudi Arabia that allows the Middle Eastern autocracy to establish a civilian nuclear program will go ahead.

Trump said the deal could only progress if Saudi Arabia normalized diplomatic relations with Israel. In the recent past, the Saudi government has repeatedly stated it would only do this if the Israelis make genuine moves toward establishing a Palestinian state. With the current Israeli government, that is unlikely to happen.

The deal must also be voted on by the US Congress and there’s been backlash already, with critics saying it could set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

One of the main reasons experts are so worried is that in several years’ time, the deal, as it stands now, may let the Saudis enrich their own uranium. The more uranium is enriched, the more it could potentially be diverted to make weapons. And in the past Saudi Arabian ruler Mohammed bin Salman has said that if Iran produces a nuclear bomb, then Saudi Arabia would need to have one too. 

The majority of the approximately 38 countries with civilian nuclear energy programs don’t enrich uranium. Instead they import it.

The US-Saudi deal also has regional implications, especially because it seems to have been formulated in a far less rigorous way than similar deals.

United Arab Emirates: Preferential treatment for Saudis?

The less strict deal the US has made with Saudi Arabia is likely to upset the United Arab Emirates, who often compete with the Saudis for geopolitical influence.

The UAE already has a nuclear power plant, Barakah, as a result of arrangements made with the Americans back in 2009. 

As with almost all of the 26 nuclear cooperation agreements the US has, the UAE’s deal also included what’s known as an “additional protocol” signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA. This means the IAEA can thoroughly inspect all nuclear facilities. The UAE also agreed to forgo uranium enrichment.

The Saudi deal is bilateral only — that is, just between the US and the Saudis and doesn’t include the IAEA — and the Saudis may eventually be allowed to enrich their own uranium.

For the UAE, nuclear power was always more about the prestige of being the first Arab nation to develop it than about military ambitions, Nour Eid told DW earlier this year. Eid is an independent researcher based in Paris who has published papers on nuclear ambitions in the Middle East for a number of think tanks.

But, she pointed out, there is also a clause in the UAE agreement that stipulates that “if a regional or neighboring country has a more flexible agreement then they reserve the right to renegotiate their terms.”

Israel: Not only one with nuclear bomb?

The Saudi-US nuclear deal will also worry the Israelis, especially if it leads to the development of a nuclear bomb in the Gulf state. That would make Saudi Arabia the only other country in the Middle East to have one.

Israel has never confirmed having nuclear weapons but it’s generally acknowledged that it does, probably around 90 warheads plus delivery systems.

Israeli politicians see the Saudi deal as a threat and say their wishes have been ignored. “Every military nuclear program begins with a civilian one,” former Israeli defense minister Avigdor Lieberman warned.

The Saudis have lobbied for their own civilian nuclear program for years and, at one stage, possible US-Saudi cooperation on this was a seen as a foreign policy sweetener: If Saudi Arabia, often perceived as a leader of the Islamic world, agreed to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, it would get nuclear technology from the US.

Any detachment of the nuclear issue from normalization is unlikely to please the Israelis.

“The agreement — coupled with the prospect of the US selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey — adds to already existing differences between the US and Israel over Iran, and Israeli occupation of south Lebanon and parts of southern Syria,” James Dorsey, an expert on the region at Singapore’s Rajaratnam School of International Studies, wrote in his regular newsletter on Thursday.

Why the US might offend its ally

There are a number of possible reasons why the US has come up with this deal.

Paris-based researcher Eid pointed out it may have to do with American competition with China and Russia, the world’s main nuclear suppliers. The Chinese and Russians have submitted bids to build nuclear plants in Saudi Arabia and these tend to come with fewer conditions, she said. Trump also previously promised to revitalize the US nuclear sector and the Saudi deal will be worth billions.

There’s also the Iran war to consider. The US-Israeli war on Iran, which started late February, saw Iran target US-allied Gulf countries. That has strained American relations with Saudi Arabia, which is caught between Israel and Iran’s hegemonic ambitions.

This deal binds the US and Saudi Arabia closer together, says Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at US-based think tank, the Defense Priorities Foundation. 

For example, it gives “Saudi Arabia a potent source of leverage to extract future concessions from Washington, including new security guarantees, by threatening to weaponize its program unless the US promises enhanced military protection,” Kelanic argued in a Wednesday press statement.

The US might feel compelled to trade defense protection for the Saudis giving up potential nuclear weapons, as happened in West Germany and South Korea, she says.

“They made nuclear progress, we wanted to prevent them from getting the bomb, and ultimately we offered them greater US military protection so they’d abandon their programs,” Kelanic explained. “Giving Riyadh uranium enrichment could functionally enmesh the US with Saudi Arabia forever.”

The deal might also mean the US is forced to intervene to save the Saudi monarchy if it was threatened, she noted.

Iran: Regional rivalry

When the deal was announced, observers were quick to point out the inherent hypocrisy. The Trump administration was now prepared to give Saudi Arabia the very things they were bombing Iran for, various experts argued.

It’s a blow to the Iranians because “their sworn enemy [the US] … is giving their regional rival a head start on its own nuclear program,” Kelanic said on social media platform, X.

That is why the deal makes a swift end to the current conflict between Iran and the US less likely, she argued. “Iran will definitely be less trusting of the US and less willing to make any concessions,” Kelanic noted online.

The deal also makes the Iranians more likely to try and weaponize their own nuclear program faster, she continued.

Other observers agree and also fear the beginning of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

However, as Eid pointed out, none of this is likely to happen in the near term. It will take the Saudis somewhere between 10 and 20 years to develop nuclear power, let alone nuclear weapons, she told DW. 

Edited by: Michaela Cavanagh

US and Saudi Arabia announce landmark nuclear deal

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