An election without a real challenge?

The recently held parliamentary election in Ethiopia has been described as “generally peaceful,” despite the exclusion of parts of the country due to insecurity.

Ethiopia is Africa’s second-most populous country, and nearly 50 million people registered to vote in the June 1 election. However, insecurity in two of the most populous regions — Amhara and Oromia — saw voting suspended in at least 140 constituencies.

Voting was also suspended in Tigray, the fourth-most populous region, with election organizers citing “unfavorable conditions.”

Mixed responses to Ethiopian election 

Despite the suspension of votes in some areas, a joint statement by the African Union Election Observation Mission and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)described the election as peaceful.

“The IGAD mission further extends its sincere congratulations to the government and the people of Ethiopia for the generally peaceful and orderly conduct of the electoral process,” said Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe, Uganda’s former vice president and head of the IGAD Observer Mission.

Wandira-Kazibwe believes the peaceful conduct of the polls puts Ethiopia on path toward “stability, constitutionalism and democratic progress.”

There were mixed reactions among political parties on the outcomes on voting day.

The Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice, which is based in the South Ethiopia regional state, said “overall, the situation was positive, with no major problems reported.”

But the Coalition for Ethiopian Unity and the Kucha People’s Democratic Party submitted a complaint to the National Election Board of Ethiopia, alleging disenfranchisement among some of its members.

“Our constituency were unable to exercise their constitutional right to elect their own representatives,” Bandira Belachew of the Kucha People’s Democratic Party told reporters.

The party has requested an annulment of the election in the Kucha constituency based on the claims.

No strong challenge for Ethiopia’s ruling party? 

Although election results are not expected until 10 days after voting, many observers and analysts predict a landslide victory for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party.

The Prosperity Party currently holds 457 out of 547 seats in the House of Representatives and is expected to maintain its hold on power.

“We have very fragmented, weak opposition parties that could not pose serious threat to the ruling party,” said analyst Bizuneh Yimenu of Queen’s University in Belfast. He told DW that power imbalances between the Prosperity Party and opposition parties could make the election uncompetitive.

However, the head of the Ethiopian People’ Revolutionary Party, Mistresilasie Tamerat — the youngest candidate in this year’s election — disagrees with the “weak” opposition narrative.

“If the opposition was weak, there would be no challenge to the government,” she told DW.

The Coalition for Ethiopian Unity (CEU), an alliance of five political parties, has criticized the electoral process, saying it was rigged and its results must be rejected.

“We are not going to accept whatever results that come in even if we won. If the process is rigged we cannot for sure expect a democratic and free and fair results,” Tamerat, whose party forms part of the CEU, told DW.

In Ethiopia’s 2005 election, opposition parties raised similar concerns, rejecting the election outcome leading to widespread protests across the country. In 2010, opposition parties took the ruling party, Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front to court over accusations of rigging the polls.

It’s not yet clear what actions current opposition figures, particularly the CEU, will take after results are declared.

What’s next for Ethiopia after the election?

Beyond claims of rigging, security challenges persist. For some analysts, the fact that voting was suspended in parts of Amhara, Oromia and Tigray indicates the impact of unresolved conflicts. 

If the Prosperity Party secures another five-year mandate, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government faces pressure to prioritize peace-building.

“I hope they use the coming five years to really bring what the majority of the country really needs and deserves, which is peace and security,” said analyst Bizuneh Yimenu.

Azeb Tadesse-Hahn also contributed to this article.

Edited by: Cai Nebe