Will Southeast Asia opt for pragmatism?


For most Southeast Asian countries, the immediate priority following the start of the Iran war has been to urge de-escalation and protect their citizens and migrant workers in the Middle East.

Malaysia’s Foreign Ministry issued a measured statement that condemned US-Israeli attacks as well as Iran’s retaliatory strikes, calling for “all parties [to] exercise maximum restraint.”

Foreign ministers of Vietnam and Cambodia urged all sides to “exercise maximum restraint,” while Thailand said it is “closely monitoring the situation with grave concern.”

Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted it “regrets the failure of negotiations,” referring to the Oman-led diplomacy that had been attempting to keep Washington and Tehran talking.

A joint Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers’ statement on March 4 called the escalation “regrettable” and a “grave threat to the lives and safety of civilians, as well as to regional and global peace and stability.”

For the most part, Southeast Asian messaging has focused on the safety of their own citizens in the Middle East.

Philippine officials and media reports have put the number of Filipinos in Iran at about 1,600 and Filipinos across theย Middle East at more than 2.2 million.

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Can the US be trusted?

Joseph Liow, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore, characterized Southeast Asia’s response as “usual, predictable statements.”

“What is not said, of course, is concern for how the Trump administration is wielding the immense power that the United Statesย possesses, namely, with little regard for international law,” he told DW.

The legal question is sensitive for a region which places utmost importance on international law, especially for the countries with territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea. Many analysts argue the US-Israeli strikes on Iranย breach the UN Charter’s core prohibition on the use of force, a debate that also flared after Washington’s attacks on Venezuela at the start of 2026.

Hunter Marston, a non-resident adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told DW that this conflict “will have long-term impacts on Southeast Asian perceptions of the US and its relations in the region.”

“Trump’s imperious rejection of international law and norms, and repeated and obvious disdain for allies and partners have already prompted regional countries to look for alternative trade and security partners,” he added.

“The latest strikes on Iran have underscored that the United States is a reckless and fickle superpower.”

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Indonesia’s balancing act

Arguably, Indonesia is in the most complicated position. President Prabowo Subianto, who has signed up to several of Washington’s controversial schemes, has offered to personally mediate new talks between the United States and Iran.

“If both sides agree, the president is prepared to travel to Tehran to carry out mediation efforts,” Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry wrote on social media on February 28.

Indonesia was one of the few Southeast Asian countries, alongside Cambodia and Vietnam, to sign up to US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace scheme for Gaza, a decision that has been vehemently opposed by many of the country’s Islamic groups.

Prabowo attended the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace last month and committed to sending 8,000 Indonesian troops to help maintain security in Gaza.

Days before the board’s meeting, Jakarta finalized a reciprocal trade agreement with the US that lowered tariffs on many Indonesian exportsย while Indonesia pledged sweeping market access for US goods.

Those moves have drawn domestic criticism, including from major Islamic organizations.

However, most Southeast Asian Muslims are Sunni, whereas Iran is primarily Shiite, and sympathy for Tehran is not uniform. Still, anger at the Gaza conflict has already driven boycotts of brands perceived as linked to the US and Israel across the region.

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Economic fallout across Southeast Asia

The geopolitical outcome of this conflict will be the declining US image in the region, but the more immediate concern is economic, Joshua Kurlantzick, senior fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.

Oil and gas prices have surged as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted, a serious problem for Southeast Asian net importers.

Several regional currencies have fallen sharply against the US dollar, while stocks have also been badly hit.

In Thailand, the region’s second-largest importer of Middle Eastern crude oil, the stock exchange was forced to close trading early on Wednesday after the market plunged by 8%.

In Myanmar, the military junta announced fuel rationing for private vehicles. Singapore, which imports nearly all its energy, has said it will likely need to revise its growth forecasts for the year.

Edited by: Shamil Shams

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